Permafrost And Infrastructure - Syntheses

Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate

Syntheses - Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate.

How is permafrost degradation affecting infrastructure?

Displaying 1 - 2 of 2
Year Authors Type Title
2017 Melvin, A M; Larsen, P; Boehlert, B; Neumann, J E; Chinowsky, P; Espinet, X; Martinich, J; Baumann, M S; Rennels, L; Bothner, A; Nicolsky, D J; Marchenko, S S Journal Article Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation

Resource


Type: Journal Article

Title: Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation

Authors: Melvin, A M; Larsen, P; Boehlert, B; Neumann, J E; Chinowsky, P; Espinet, X; Martinich, J; Baumann, M S; Rennels, L; Bothner, A; Nicolsky, D J; Marchenko, S S

Year: 2017

Periodical: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volume: 114

Issue: 2

Pages: E122-E131

Abstract: Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80-100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5.

URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85009291655&doi=10.1073/pnas...

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1611056113/-/DCSupplemental


Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate

Syntheses - Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate.

2014 Hong, E; Perkins, R; Trainor, S Journal Article Thaw settlement hazard of permafrost related to climate warming in Alaska

Resource


Type: Journal Article

Title: Thaw settlement hazard of permafrost related to climate warming in Alaska

Authors: Hong, E; Perkins, R; Trainor, S

Year: 2014

Periodical: Arctic

Volume: 67

Issue: 1

Pages: 93-103

Abstract: Permafrost temperatures have increased in Alaska since the 1960s, and many impacts of climate warming are associated with permafrost thaw. Thaw of permafrost caused by increases in permafrost temperature may result in thaw settlement and significant damage to infrastructure. The goal of this research is to identify regions of Alaska at risk from thaw subsidence related to climate warming and to determine the relative risk of those regions. We developed a Permafrost Settlement Hazard Index (PSHI) by analyzing anticipated climate warming and the ecological characteristics that regulate thaw subsidence. This analysis provides statistical verification that the discontinuous permafrost region is at more risk of thaw settlement than other regions of Alaska. In addition, it estimates future thaw subsidence risk in Alaska in 2050 using future temperature increases projected by published climate models. Results indicate increased thaw subsidence risk in northern Alaska in 2050, with the greatest increase expected in parts of northwest Alaska. However, in the interior and southwest Alaska, projected disappearance of permafrost from the surface will reduce the risk of thaw subsidence. © The Arctic Institute of North America.

URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84896473124&doi=10.14430/arc...

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.14430/arctic4368


Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate

Syntheses - Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate.