Arctic Answers Resources

Displaying 1 - 25 of 560
Year Authors Pyramid Tier Type Title
2851 Iii, Walter B Tucker; Weatherly, John W; Eppler, Duane T; Farmer, L Dennis Future Sea Ice Loss Building Blocks Report Evidence for rapid thinning of sea ice in the western Arctic Ocean at the end of the 1980s

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Type: Report

Title: Evidence for rapid thinning of sea ice in the western Arctic Ocean at the end of the 1980s

Authors: Iii, Walter B Tucker; Weatherly, John W; Eppler, Duane T; Farmer, L Dennis

Year: 2851

Volume: 28

Issue: 14

Abstract: Examination of springtime ice drafts obtained from submarine profiles in a narrow band of the western Arctic Ocean from offshore Alaska to 89øN indicates that the mean ice draft decreased 1.5 m between the mid-1980s and early 1990s. No similar trend was evident in ice drafts near the North Pole. The 1980s drafts were composed largely of ice exceeding 3.5 m, while the early 1990s drafts contained more ice in thinner categories. The differences in drafts between the two periods appear to be related largely to ice dynamics effects associated with the presence and strength of the Beaufort Gyre, which weakened considerably in the early 1990s.

URL: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2001GL012967

DOI: 10.1029/2001GL012967


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks -

Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2018 Jennifer Francis Arctic Meltdown Briefs Journal Article Arctic Meltdown and Unruly Tropical Storms: Are They Connected?

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Arctic Meltdown and Unruly Tropical Storms: Are They Connected?

Authors: Jennifer Francis

Year: 2018

Periodical: SEARCH Science Briefs

Issue: July

URL: https://www.searcharcticscience.org/files/pyramid/assets/aa012_july_2018_arctic_…


Concise, non-technical overview of the state of the science

Briefs -

Concise, non-technical overview of the state of the science

2018 George Hunt; Lisa Eisner; Neysa M. Call Commercial Fisheries Briefs Journal Article How Will Diminishing Sea Ice Impact Commercial Fishing in the Bering Sea?

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Type: Journal Article

Title: How Will Diminishing Sea Ice Impact Commercial Fishing in the Bering Sea?

Authors: George Hunt; Lisa Eisner; Neysa M. Call

Year: 2018

Periodical: SEARCH Science Briefs

URL: https://www.searcharcticscience.org/files/pyramid/assets/aa013_july_2018_commerc…


Concise, non-technical overview of the state of the science

Briefs -

Concise, non-technical overview of the state of the science

2018 Courtney Carothers; Andrew Seitz; Trent Sutton Subsistence Fisheries Briefs Journal Article How is Climate Change Affecting Subsistence (Or Traditional) Fisheries in the High Arctic?

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Type: Journal Article

Title: How is Climate Change Affecting Subsistence (Or Traditional) Fisheries in the High Arctic?

Authors: Courtney Carothers; Andrew Seitz; Trent Sutton

Year: 2018

Periodical: SEARCH Science Briefs

Issue: July

URL: https://www.searcharcticscience.org/files/pyramid/assets/aa015_july_2018_subsist…


Concise, non-technical overview of the state of the science

Briefs -

Concise, non-technical overview of the state of the science

2018 Trochim, Erin; Schuur, Ted Permafrost and Infrastructure Briefs Journal Article How is permafrost degradation affecting infrastructure?

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Type: Journal Article

Title: How is permafrost degradation affecting infrastructure?

Authors: Trochim, Erin; Schuur, Ted

Year: 2018

URL: https://www.searcharcticscience.org/arctic-answers/permafrost-and-infrastructure…


Concise, non-technical overview of the state of the science

Briefs -

Concise, non-technical overview of the state of the science

2018 Niederdrenk, Anne Laura; Notz, Dirk Future Sea Ice Loss Syntheses Journal Article Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5°C Warmer World

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5°C Warmer World

Authors: Niederdrenk, Anne Laura; Notz, Dirk

Year: 2018

Periodical: Geophysical Research Letters

Abstract: We examine the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice in scenarios with limited future global warming. To do so, we analyze two sets of observational records that cover the observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice loss per degree of global warming. The observations are combined with 100 simulations of historical and future climate evolution from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Grand Ensemble. Based on the high-sensitivity observations, we find that Arctic September sea ice is lost with low probability ( P ≈ 10%) for global warming of + 1.5°C above preindustrial levels and with very high probability ( P > 99%) for global warming of + 2°C above preindustrial levels. For the low-sensitivity observations, September sea ice is extremely unlikely to disappear for + 1.5° C warming ( P ≪ 1%) and has low likelihood ( P ≈ 10%) to disappear even for + 2°C global warming. For March, both observational records suggest a loss of 15% to 20% of Arctic sea ice area for 1.5°C to 2°C global warming.

URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076159

DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076159


Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate

Syntheses -

Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate.

2018 Bliss, A. C., & Anderson, M. R. Future Sea Ice Loss Building Blocks Journal Article Arctic Sea Ice Melt Onset Timing From Passive Microwave‐Based and Surface Air Temperature‐Based Methods

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Arctic Sea Ice Melt Onset Timing From Passive Microwave‐Based and Surface Air Temperature‐Based Methods

Authors: Bliss, A. C., & Anderson, M. R.

Year: 2018

Periodical: Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,

Volume: 123

Issue: 17

Pages: 9063-9080

Abstract: Melt onset (MO) on Arctic sea ice has been monitored using satellite‐based passive microwave (PMW) observations since 1979. In this work, surface air temperatures from the International Arctic Buoy Programme/Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface and NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder are used to derive MO date estimates using three threshold methods which are then compared with a record of PMW‐based MO dates. Results from the PMW data indicate a shift toward increasingly early MO timing, with significant trends as large as −9.45 days/decade in the E. Siberian Sea and −5.69 days/decade for the entire Arctic, consistent with other studies highlighting the overall decline of Arctic sea ice. Results indicate that the surface air temperature‐based MO date estimates produced using a −1 °C threshold are ~11 days later than the PMW‐based MO date estimates Arctic wide. A statistical comparison of the Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface and PMW‐based MO dates indicate that despite the ~11‐day bias, correlations between the MO date time series are generally good (≥0.6) for most of the Arctic Ocean while the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and PMW‐based MO dates are generally better at capturing the statistically similar long‐term trends in MO dates for the Arctic and several Arctic subregions. Application of these results can contribute to the development of new methods to monitor the sea ice melting state.

URL: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JD028676

DOI: 10.1029/2018JD028676


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks -

Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2018 Li, Fei; Orsolini, Yvan J.; Wang, Huijun; Gao, Yongqi Future Sea Ice Loss Syntheses Journal Article Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Modulates the Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice Decline

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Modulates the Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice Decline

Authors: Li, Fei; Orsolini, Yvan J.; Wang, Huijun; Gao, Yongqi

Year: 2018

Periodical: Geophysical Research Letters

Volume: 45

Issue: 5

Pages: 2497-2506

Abstract: The Arctic sea ice cover has been rapidly declining in the last two decades, concurrent with a shift in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to its warm phase around 1996/1997. Here we use both observations and model simulations to investigate the modulation of the atmospheric impacts of the decreased sea ice cover in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic (AASIC) by the AMO. We find that the AASIC loss during a cold AMO phase induces increased Ural blocking activity, a southeastward-extended snowpack, and a cold continent anomaly over Eurasia in December through northerly cold air advection and moisture transport from the Arctic. The increased Ural blocking activity and more extended Eurasian snowpack strengthen the upward propagation of planetary waves over the Siberian-Pacific sector in the lower stratosphere and hence lead to a weakened stratospheric polar vortex and a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) phase at the surface in February. However, corresponding to the AASIC loss during a warm AMO phase, one finds more widespread warming over the Arctic and a reduced snowpack over Northern Eurasia in December. The stratosphere-troposphere coupling is suppressed in early winter and no negative AO anomaly is found in February. We suggest that the cold AMO phase is important to regulate the atmospheric response to AASIC decline, and our study provides insight to the ongoing debate on the connection between the Arctic sea ice and the AO.

DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076210


Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate

Syntheses -

Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate.

2018 Mueller, B. L.; Gillett, N. P.; Monahan, A. H.; Zwiers, F. W. Future Sea Ice Loss Syntheses Journal Article Attribution of Arctic Sea Ice Decline from 1953 to 2012 to Influences from Natural, Greenhouse Gas, and Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Attribution of Arctic Sea Ice Decline from 1953 to 2012 to Influences from Natural, Greenhouse Gas, and Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing

Authors: Mueller, B. L.; Gillett, N. P.; Monahan, A. H.; Zwiers, F. W.

Year: 2018

Periodical: Journal of Climate

Volume: 31

Issue: 19

Pages: 7771-7787

Abstract: The paper presents results from a climate change detection and attribution study on the decline of Arctic sea ice extent in September for the 1953–2012 period. For this period three independently derived observational datasets and simulations from multiple climate models are available to attribute observed changes in the sea ice extent to known climate forcings. Here we direct our attention to the combined cooling effect from other anthropogenic forcing agents (mainly aerosols), which has potentially masked a fraction of greenhouse gas–induced Arctic sea ice decline. The presented detection and attribution framework consists of a regression model, namely, regularized optimal fingerprinting, where observations are regressed onto model-simulated climate response patterns (i.e., fingerprints). We show that fingerprints from greenhouse gas, natural, and other anthropogenic forcings are detected in the three observed records of Arctic sea ice extent. Beyond that, our findings indicate that for the 1953...

URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1

DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1


Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate

Syntheses -

Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate.

2018 Kwok, R Future Sea Ice Loss Building Blocks Journal Article Arctic sea ice thickness, volume, and multiyear ice coverage: losses and coupled variability (1958–2018)

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Arctic sea ice thickness, volume, and multiyear ice coverage: losses and coupled variability (1958–2018)

Authors: Kwok, R

Year: 2018

Periodical: Environmental Research Letters

Publisher: IOP Publishing

Volume: 13

Issue: 10

Pages: 105005

Abstract: Large-scale changes in Arctic sea ice thickness, volume and multiyear sea ice (MYI) coverage with available measurements from submarine sonars, satellite altimeters (ICESat and CryoSat-2), and satellite scatterometers are summarized. The submarine record spans the period between 1958 and 2000, the satellite altimeter records between 2003 and 2018, and the scatterometer records between 1999 and 2017. Regional changes in ice thickness (since 1958) and within the data release area of the Arctic Ocean, previously reported by Kwok and Rothrock (2009 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 L15501), have been updated to include the 8 years of CryoSat-2 (CS-2) retrievals. Between the pre-1990 submarine period (1958–1976) and the CS-2 period (2011–2018) the average thickness near the end of the melt season, in six regions, decreased by 2.0 m or some 66% over six decades. Within the data release area (~38% of the Arctic Ocean) of submarine ice draft, the thinning of ~1.75 m in winter since 1980 (maximum thickness of 3.64 m in the regression analysis) has not changed significantly; the mean thickness over the CS-2 period is ~2 m. The 15 year satellite record depicts losses in sea ice volume at 2870 km3/decade and 5130 km3/decade in winter (February–March) and fall (October–November), respectively: more moderate trends compared to the sharp decreases over the ICESat period, where the losses were weighted by record-setting melt in 2007. Over the scatterometer record (1999–2017), the Arctic has lost more than 2 × 106 km2 of MYI—a decrease of more than 50%; MYI now covers less than one-third of the Arctic Ocean. Independent MYI coverage and volume records co-vary in time, the MYI area anomalies explain ~85% of the variance in the anomalies in Arctic sea ice volume. If losses of MYI continue, Arctic thickness/volume will be controlled by seasonal ice, suggesting that the thickness/volume trends will be more moderate (as seen here) but more sensitive to climate forcing.

URL: http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=10/a=105005

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aae3ec


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks -

Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2018 Kliskey, Andrew; Williams, Paula; Abatzoglou, John T.; Alessa, Lilian Permafrost Ecosystem Services Syntheses Journal Article Enhancing a community-based water resource tool for assessing environmental change: the arctic water resources vulnerability index revisited

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Enhancing a community-based water resource tool for assessing environmental change: the arctic water resources vulnerability index revisited

Authors: Kliskey, Andrew; Williams, Paula; Abatzoglou, John T.; Alessa, Lilian

Year: 2018

Periodical: Environment Systems and Decisions

Publisher: Springer US

Pages: 1-15

Abstract: People in the Arctic and sub-Arctic continue to face uncertainty in their livelihoods as they contend with environmental variability and change operating at multiple scales. The arctic water resources vulnerability index (AWRVI) was proposed as a tool that arctic communities could use to assess their susceptibility to both changing biophysical conditions affecting their water resources and socioeconomic conditions measuring their ability to respond to such changes. The application of AWRVI in six communities in Northwest Alaska and one in Southcentral Alaska is explored with a view to enhancing the tool as an adaptive capacity index, and a set of AWRVI indicators and parameters was refined by modifying the suite of biophysical measures and societal capacities to enhance the ability of the tool to gauge community adaptive capacity, and incorporate the use of more diverse datasets. A critical update was the development of an indicator for change in timing of precipitation in response to advice from Alaskan practitioners and scientists. Index scores based on the updated AWRVI are compared with the original AWRVI for the seven communities and show small to modest changes in the adaptive capacity scores. The role of the updated AWRVI is discussed as a tool to assist communities as they attempt to understand, negotiate, and reconcile adaptation measures for environmental change at local scales, potentially providing a guide for communities to target adaptive responses.

URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10669-018-9712-7

DOI: 10.1007/s10669-018-9712-7


Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate

Syntheses -

Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate.

2018 Permafrost Ecosystem Services Briefs Journal Article How Is Permafrost Degradation Affecting Ecosystem Services?

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Type: Journal Article

Title: How Is Permafrost Degradation Affecting Ecosystem Services?

Authors:

Year: 2018


Concise, non-technical overview of the state of the science

Briefs -

Concise, non-technical overview of the state of the science

2017 Hardge, Kristin; Peeken, Ilka; Neuhaus, Stefan; Lange, Benjamin A. Unclassified Unclassified Journal Article The importance of sea ice for exchange of habitat-specific protist communities in the Central Arctic Ocean

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Type: Journal Article

Title: The importance of sea ice for exchange of habitat-specific protist communities in the Central Arctic Ocean

Authors: Hardge, Kristin; Peeken, Ilka; Neuhaus, Stefan; Lange, Benjamin A.

Year: 2017

Periodical: Journal of Marine Systems

Volume: 165

Pages: 124-138

Abstract: Sea ice is one of the main features influencing the Arctic marine protist community composition and diversity in sea ice and sea water. We analyzed protist communities within sea ice, melt pond water, under-ice water and deep-chlorophyll maximum water at eight sea ice stations sampled during summer of the 2012 record sea ice minimum year. Using Illumina sequencing, we identified characteristic communities associated with specific habitats and investigated protist exchange between these habitats. The highest abundance and diversity of unique taxa were found in sea ice, particularly in multi-year ice (MYI), highlighting the importance of sea ice as a unique habitat for sea ice protists. Melting of sea ice was associated with increased exchange of communities between sea ice and the underlying water column. In contrast, sea ice formation was associated with increased exchange between all four habitats, suggesting that brine rejection from the ice is an important factor for species redistribution in the Central Arctic. Ubiquitous taxa (e.g. Gymnodinium) that occurred in all habitats still had habitat-preferences. This demonstrates a limited ability to survive in adjacent but different environments. Our results suggest that the continued reduction of sea ice extent, and particularly of MYI, will likely lead to diminished protist exchange and subsequently, could reduce species diversity in all habitats of the Central Arctic Ocean. An important component of the unique sea ice protist community could be endangered because specialized taxa restricted to this habitat may not be able to adapt to rapid environmental changes.

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2016.10.004


Unclassified -

2017 Mendes, V.B.; Barbosa, S.M.; Romero, I.; Madeira, J. Land Motion Building Blocks Journal Article Vertical land motion and sea level change in Macaronesia

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Vertical land motion and sea level change in Macaronesia

Authors: Mendes, V.B.; Barbosa, S.M.; Romero, I.; Madeira, J.

Year: 2017

Periodical: Geophysical Journal International

Volume: 210

Issue: 2

Pages: 1264-1280

Abstract: This study addresses long-term sea level variability in Macaronesia from a holistic perspective using all available instrumental records in the region, including a dense network of GPS continuous stations, tide gauges and satellite observations. A detailed assessment of vertical movement from GPS time series underlines the influence of the complex volcano-tectonic setting of the Macaronesian islands in local uplift/subsidence. Relative sea level for the region is spatially highly variable, ranging from −1.1 to 5.1 mm yr−1. Absolute sea level from satellite altimetry exhibits consistent trends in the Macaronesia, with a mean value of 3.0 ± 0.5 mm yr−1. Typically, sea level trends from tide gauge records corrected for vertical movement using the estimates from GPS time series are lower than uncorrected estimates. The agreement between satellite altimetry and tide gauge trends corrected for vertical land varies substantially from island to island. Trends derived from the combination of GPS and tide gauge observations differ by less than 1 mm yr−1 with respect to absolute sea level trends from satellite altimetry for 56 per cent of the stations, despite the heterogeneity in length of both GPS and tide gauge series, and the influence of volcanic-tectonic processes affecting the position of some GPS stations.

URL: https://academic.oup.com/gji/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/gji/ggx229

DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggx229


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks -

Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2017 AMAP Future Sea Ice Loss Summaries Report Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic. Summary for Policy-makers

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Type: Report

Title: Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic. Summary for Policy-makers

Authors: AMAP

Year: 2017

Abstract: This document presents the policy-relevant findings of the AMAP 2017 assessments of snow, water, ice and permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA)

URL: https://www.amap.no/documents/doc/Snow-Water-Ice-and-Permafrost.-Summary-for-Pol…


Accessible summaries of science’s main findings, critical questions, and societal importance

Summaries -

Accessible summaries of science’s main findings, critical questions, and societal importance

2017 Sheridan, Scott C.; Pirhalla, Douglas E.; Lee, Cameron C.; Ransibrahmanakul, Varis Sea level rise Building Blocks Journal Article Atmospheric drivers of sea-level fluctuations and nuisance floods along the mid-Atlantic coast of the USA

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Atmospheric drivers of sea-level fluctuations and nuisance floods along the mid-Atlantic coast of the USA

Authors: Sheridan, Scott C.; Pirhalla, Douglas E.; Lee, Cameron C.; Ransibrahmanakul, Varis

Year: 2017

Periodical: Regional Environmental Change

Volume: 17

Issue: 6

Pages: 1853-1861

Abstract: As sea levels have risen and continue to rise, the risk of coastal flooding has increased in turn. While many studies have examined specific extreme flooding events, far fewer have explored the systematic associations between weather events and smaller, nuisance flood events. In this research, we take a synoptic climatological approach to assess this connection. We utilize self-organizing maps (SOMs) to separately cluster two atmospheric fields, sea-level pressure and 700-hPa geopotential height. We then utilize the output from these classifications to assess the impact of atmospheric conditions on the short-term fluctuations of sea level for the period 1979–2012, as well as the likelihood of nuisance flood occurrence, at five tidal gauges from Cape May, NJ, to Charleston, SC, along the mid-Atlantic coast of the USA. Results show the impacts of both the inverted barometer effect as well as surface wind forcing. Beyond this, the SOM nodes show a clear spatial continuum of associations between circulation and anomalous sea level, including some significant sea-level anomalies associated with relatively ambiguous pressure patterns. Moreover, the transitions from 1 day to the next are also analyzed, with results showing that rapidly deepening cyclones, or persistent onshore flow, can be associated with the greatest likelihood of nuisance floods. Results are generally weaker with 700-hPa height than sea-level pressure; however, in some cases, it is clear that the mid-tropospheric circulation can modulate the connection between sea-level anomalies and surface circulation.

URL: https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10113-017-1156-y.pdf

DOI: 10.1007/s10113-017-1156-y


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks -

Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2017 Sweet, William V; Kopp, Robert E; Weaver, Christopher P; Obeysekera, Jayantha Sea level rise Summaries Report NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 083: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States

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Type: Report

Title: NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 083: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States

Authors: Sweet, William V; Kopp, Robert E; Weaver, Christopher P; Obeysekera, Jayantha

Year: 2017

Issue: January

Pages: 1-75

Abstract: The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force, jointly convened by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Ocean Council (NOC), began its work in August 2015. The Task Force has focused its efforts on three primary tasks: 1) updating scenarios of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise, 2) integrating the global scenarios with regional factors contributing to sea level change for the entire U.S. coastline, and 3) incorporating these regionally appropriate scenarios within coastal risk management tools and capabilities deployed by individual agencies in support of the needs of specific stakeholder groups and user communities. This technical report focuses on the first two of these tasks and reports on the production of gridded relative sea level (RSL, which includes both ocean-level change and vertical land motion) projections for the United States associated with an updated set of GMSL scenarios. In addition to supporting the longer-term Task Force effort, this new product will be an important input into the USGCRP Sustained Assessment process and upcoming Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) due in 2018. This report also serves as a key technical input into the in-progress USGCRP Climate Science Special Report (CSSR)...

URL: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR…


Accessible summaries of science’s main findings, critical questions, and societal importance

Summaries -

Accessible summaries of science’s main findings, critical questions, and societal importance

2017 Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil Sea level rise Syntheses Journal Article Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

Authors: Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil

Year: 2017

Periodical: Scientific Reports

Volume: 7

Issue: 1

Pages: 1-9

Abstract: Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-01362-7.pdf

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-01362-7


Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate

Syntheses -

Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate.

2017 Buchanan, Maya K; Oppenheimer, Michael; Kopp, Robert E Sea level rise Building Blocks Journal Article Amplification of flood frequencies with local sea level rise and emerging flood regimes

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Amplification of flood frequencies with local sea level rise and emerging flood regimes

Authors: Buchanan, Maya K; Oppenheimer, Michael; Kopp, Robert E

Year: 2017

Periodical: Environmental Research Letters

Volume: 12

Issue: 6

Pages: 1-7

Abstract: The amplification of flood frequencies by sea level rise (SLR) is expected to become one of the most economically damaging impacts of climate change for many coastal locations. Understanding the magnitude and pattern by which the frequency of current flood levels increase is important for developing more resilient coastal settlements, particularly since flood risk management (e.g. infrastructure, insurance, communications) is often tied to estimates of flood return periods. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report characterized the multiplication factor by which the frequency of flooding of a given height increases (referred to here as an amplification factor; AF). However, this characterization neither rigorously considered uncertainty in SLR nor distinguished between the amplification of different flooding levels (such as the 10% versus 0.2% annual chance floods); therefore, it may be seriously misleading. Because both historical flood frequency and projected SLR are uncertain, we combine joint probability distributions of the two to calculate AFs and their uncertainties over time. Under probabilistic relative sea level projections, while maintaining storm frequency fixed, we estimate a median 40-fold increase (ranging from 1- to 1314-fold) in the expected annual number of local 100-year floods for tide-gauge locations along the contiguous US coastline by 2050. While some places can expect disproportionate amplification of higher frequency events and thus primarily a greater number of historically precedented floods, others face amplification of lower frequency events and thus a particularly fast growing risk of historically unprecedented flooding. For example, with 50 cm of SLR, the 10%, 1%, and 0.2% annual chance floods are expected respectively to recur 108, 335, and 814 times as often in Seattle, but 148, 16, and 4 times as often in Charleston, SC.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb3/pdf

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb3


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks -

Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2017 Chen, Xianyao; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Watson, Christopher S. Sea level rise Building Blocks Journal Article The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014

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Type: Journal Article

Title: The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014

Authors: Chen, Xianyao; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Watson, Christopher S.

Year: 2017

Periodical: Nature Climate Change

Volume: 7

Issue: 7

Pages: 492-495

Abstract: Global mean sea level (GMSL) has been rising at a faster rate during the satellite altimetry period (1993-2014) than previous decades, and is expected to accelerate further over the coming century. However, the accelerations observed over century and longer periods2 have not been clearly detected in altimeter data spanning the past two decades. Here we show that the rise, from the sum of all observed contributions to GMSL, increases from 2.2 ± 0.3 mm yr-1 in 1993 to 3.3 ± 0.3 mm yr-1 in 2014. This is in approximate agreement with observed increase in GMSL rise, 2.4 ± 0.2 mm yr-1 (1993) to 2.9 ± 0.3 mm yr-1 (2014), from satellite observations that have been adjusted for small systematic drift, particularly affecting the first decade of satellite observations6. The mass contributions to GMSL increase from about 50% in 1993 to 70% in 2014 with the largest, and statistically significant, increase coming from the contribution from the Greenland ice sheet, which is less than 5% of the GMSL rate during 1993 but more than 25% during 2014. The suggested acceleration and improved closure of the sea-level budget highlights the importance and urgency of mitigating climate change and formulating coastal adaption plans to mitigate the impacts of ongoing sea-level rise.

URL: http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate3325

DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3325


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks -

Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2017 Dahl, Kristina A.; Fitzpatrick, Melanie F.; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika Sea level rise Syntheses Journal Article Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045

Authors: Dahl, Kristina A.; Fitzpatrick, Melanie F.; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

Year: 2017

Periodical: PLoS ONE

Volume: 12

Issue: 2

Pages: 1-23

Abstract: Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001–2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding cur-rently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substan-tial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years.

URL: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0170949


Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate

Syntheses -

Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate.

2017 Gornitz, Vivien; Horton, Radley; Bader, Daniel A; Orton, Philip Sea level rise Building Blocks Book Section Coping with Higher Sea Levels and Increased Coastal Flood ing in New York City

Resource


Type: Book Section

Title: Coping with Higher Sea Levels and Increased Coastal Flood ing in New York City

Authors: Gornitz, Vivien; Horton, Radley; Bader, Daniel A; Orton, Philip

Year: 2017

Periodical: Climate Change Adaptation in North America

Publisher: Springer International Publishing AG

Pages: 209-223

Abstract: The 837 km New York City shoreline is lined by significant economic assets and dense population vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal flooding. After Hurricane Sandy in 2012, New York City developed a comprehensive plan to mitigate future climate risks, drawing upon the scientific expertise of the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), a special advisory group comprised of university and private-sector experts. This paper highlights current NPCC findings regarding sea level rise and coastal flooding, with some of the City’s ongoing and planned responses. Twentieth century sea level rise in New York City (2.8 cm/decade) exceeded the global average (1.7 cm/decade), underscoring the enhanced regional risk to coastal hazards. NPCC (2015) projects future sea level rise at the Battery of 28–53 cm by the 2050s and 46–99 cm by the 2080s, relative to 2000–2004 (mid-range, 25th–75th percentile). High-end SLR estimates (90th percentile) reach 76 cm by the 2050s, and 1.9 m by 2100. Combining these projections with updated FEMA flood return period curves, assuming static flood dynamics and storm behavior, flood heights for the 100-year storm (excluding waves) attain 3.9–4.5 m (mid-range), relative to the NAVD88 tidal datum, and 4.9 m (high end) by the 2080s, up from 3.4 m in the 2000s. Flood heights with a 1% annual chance of occurrence in the 2000s increase to 2.0–5.4% (mid-range) and 12.7% per year (high-end), by the 2080s. Guided by NPCC (2013, 2015) findings, New York City has embarked on a suite of initiatives to strengthen coastal defenses, employing various approaches tailored to specific neighborhood needs. NPCC continues its collaboration with the city to investigate vulnerability to extreme climate events, including heat waves, inland floods and coastal storms. Current research entails higher-resolution neighborhood-level coastal flood mapping, changes in storm characteristics, surge height interactions with sea level rise, and stronger engagement with stakeholders and community-based organizations.

URL: https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-53742-9_13

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-53742-9


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks -

Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2017 Dieng, H. B.; Cazenave, A.; Meyssignac, B.; Ablain, M. Sea level rise Building Blocks Journal Article New estimate of the current rate of sea level rise from a sea level budget approach

Resource


Type: Journal Article

Title: New estimate of the current rate of sea level rise from a sea level budget approach

Authors: Dieng, H. B.; Cazenave, A.; Meyssignac, B.; Ablain, M.

Year: 2017

Periodical: Geophysical Research Letters

Volume: 44

Issue: 8

Pages: 3744-3751

Abstract: We revisit the global mean sea level (GMSL) budget during the whole altimetry era (January 1993 to December 2015) using a large number of data sets. The budget approach allows quantifying the TOPEX A altimeter drift (amounting 1.5 ± 0.5 mm/yr over 1993–1998). Accounting for this correction and using ensemble means for the GMSL and components lead to closure of the sea level budget (trend of the residual time series being 0.0 ± 0.22 mm/yr). The new GMSL rate over January 1993 to December 2015 is now close to 3.0 mm/yr. An important increase of the GMSL rate, of 0.8 mm/yr, is found during the second half of the altimetry era (2004–2015) compared to the 1993–2004 time span, mostly due to Greenland mass loss increase and also to slight increase of all other components of the budget.

URL: http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL073308

DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073308


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks -

Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2017 Williams, Dee Mitigation Briefs Report Can Extreme Arctic Climate Change Be Avoided With Cost Effective Mitigation?

Resource


Type: Report

Title: Can Extreme Arctic Climate Change Be Avoided With Cost Effective Mitigation?

Authors: Williams, Dee

Year: 2017

Pages: 2

URL: https://www.searcharcticscience.org/search-program/arctic-answers/mitigation


Concise, non-technical overview of the state of the science

Briefs -

Concise, non-technical overview of the state of the science

2017 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Mitigation Summaries Report Snow, Water, Ice in the Arctic

Resource


Type: Report

Title: Snow, Water, Ice in the Arctic

Authors: Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme

Year: 2017

Pages: 20

URL: https://www.amap.no/documents/doc/Snow-Water-Ice-and-Permafrost.-Summary-for-Pol…


Accessible summaries of science’s main findings, critical questions, and societal importance

Summaries -

Accessible summaries of science’s main findings, critical questions, and societal importance