Sea Level Rise - Building Blocks

Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks - Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

How fast is sea level rising?

Displaying 1 - 16 of 16
Year Authors Type Title
2017 Sheridan, Scott C.; Pirhalla, Douglas E.; Lee, Cameron C.; Ransibrahmanakul, Varis Journal Article Atmospheric drivers of sea-level fluctuations and nuisance floods along the mid-Atlantic coast of the USA

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Atmospheric drivers of sea-level fluctuations and nuisance floods along the mid-Atlantic coast of the USA

Authors: Sheridan, Scott C.; Pirhalla, Douglas E.; Lee, Cameron C.; Ransibrahmanakul, Varis

Year: 2017

Periodical: Regional Environmental Change

Volume: 17

Issue: 6

Pages: 1853-1861

Abstract: As sea levels have risen and continue to rise, the risk of coastal flooding has increased in turn. While many studies have examined specific extreme flooding events, far fewer have explored the systematic associations between weather events and smaller, nuisance flood events. In this research, we take a synoptic climatological approach to assess this connection. We utilize self-organizing maps (SOMs) to separately cluster two atmospheric fields, sea-level pressure and 700-hPa geopotential height. We then utilize the output from these classifications to assess the impact of atmospheric conditions on the short-term fluctuations of sea level for the period 1979–2012, as well as the likelihood of nuisance flood occurrence, at five tidal gauges from Cape May, NJ, to Charleston, SC, along the mid-Atlantic coast of the USA. Results show the impacts of both the inverted barometer effect as well as surface wind forcing. Beyond this, the SOM nodes show a clear spatial continuum of associations between circulation and anomalous sea level, including some significant sea-level anomalies associated with relatively ambiguous pressure patterns. Moreover, the transitions from 1 day to the next are also analyzed, with results showing that rapidly deepening cyclones, or persistent onshore flow, can be associated with the greatest likelihood of nuisance floods. Results are generally weaker with 700-hPa height than sea-level pressure; however, in some cases, it is clear that the mid-tropospheric circulation can modulate the connection between sea-level anomalies and surface circulation.

URL: https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10113-017-1156-y.pdf

DOI: 10.1007/s10113-017-1156-y


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks - Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2017 Buchanan, Maya K; Oppenheimer, Michael; Kopp, Robert E Journal Article Amplification of flood frequencies with local sea level rise and emerging flood regimes

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Amplification of flood frequencies with local sea level rise and emerging flood regimes

Authors: Buchanan, Maya K; Oppenheimer, Michael; Kopp, Robert E

Year: 2017

Periodical: Environmental Research Letters

Volume: 12

Issue: 6

Pages: 1-7

Abstract: The amplification of flood frequencies by sea level rise (SLR) is expected to become one of the most economically damaging impacts of climate change for many coastal locations. Understanding the magnitude and pattern by which the frequency of current flood levels increase is important for developing more resilient coastal settlements, particularly since flood risk management (e.g. infrastructure, insurance, communications) is often tied to estimates of flood return periods. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report characterized the multiplication factor by which the frequency of flooding of a given height increases (referred to here as an amplification factor; AF). However, this characterization neither rigorously considered uncertainty in SLR nor distinguished between the amplification of different flooding levels (such as the 10% versus 0.2% annual chance floods); therefore, it may be seriously misleading. Because both historical flood frequency and projected SLR are uncertain, we combine joint probability distributions of the two to calculate AFs and their uncertainties over time. Under probabilistic relative sea level projections, while maintaining storm frequency fixed, we estimate a median 40-fold increase (ranging from 1- to 1314-fold) in the expected annual number of local 100-year floods for tide-gauge locations along the contiguous US coastline by 2050. While some places can expect disproportionate amplification of higher frequency events and thus primarily a greater number of historically precedented floods, others face amplification of lower frequency events and thus a particularly fast growing risk of historically unprecedented flooding. For example, with 50 cm of SLR, the 10%, 1%, and 0.2% annual chance floods are expected respectively to recur 108, 335, and 814 times as often in Seattle, but 148, 16, and 4 times as often in Charleston, SC.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb3/pdf

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb3


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks - Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2017 Chen, Xianyao; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Watson, Christopher S.; King, Matt A.; Monselesan, Didier; Legresy, Benoit; Harig, Christopher Journal Article The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014

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Type: Journal Article

Title: The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014

Authors: Chen, Xianyao; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Watson, Christopher S.; King, Matt A.; Monselesan, Didier; Legresy, Benoit; Harig, Christopher

Year: 2017

Periodical: Nature Climate Change

Volume: 7

Issue: 7

Pages: 492-495

Abstract: Global mean sea level (GMSL) has been rising at a faster rate during the satellite altimetry period (1993-2014) than previous decades, and is expected to accelerate further over the coming century. However, the accelerations observed over century and longer periods2 have not been clearly detected in altimeter data spanning the past two decades. Here we show that the rise, from the sum of all observed contributions to GMSL, increases from 2.2 ± 0.3 mm yr-1 in 1993 to 3.3 ± 0.3 mm yr-1 in 2014. This is in approximate agreement with observed increase in GMSL rise, 2.4 ± 0.2 mm yr-1 (1993) to 2.9 ± 0.3 mm yr-1 (2014), from satellite observations that have been adjusted for small systematic drift, particularly affecting the first decade of satellite observations6. The mass contributions to GMSL increase from about 50% in 1993 to 70% in 2014 with the largest, and statistically significant, increase coming from the contribution from the Greenland ice sheet, which is less than 5% of the GMSL rate during 1993 but more than 25% during 2014. The suggested acceleration and improved closure of the sea-level budget highlights the importance and urgency of mitigating climate change and formulating coastal adaption plans to mitigate the impacts of ongoing sea-level rise.

URL: http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate3325

DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3325


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks - Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2017 Gornitz, Vivien; Horton, Radley; Bader, Daniel A; Orton, Philip Book Section Coping with Higher Sea Levels and Increased Coastal Flood ing in New York City

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Type: Book Section

Title: Coping with Higher Sea Levels and Increased Coastal Flood ing in New York City

Authors: Gornitz, Vivien; Horton, Radley; Bader, Daniel A; Orton, Philip

Year: 2017

Periodical: Climate Change Adaptation in North America

Publisher: Springer International Publishing AG

Pages: 209-223

Abstract: The 837 km New York City shoreline is lined by significant economic assets and dense population vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal flooding. After Hurricane Sandy in 2012, New York City developed a comprehensive plan to mitigate future climate risks, drawing upon the scientific expertise of the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), a special advisory group comprised of university and private-sector experts. This paper highlights current NPCC findings regarding sea level rise and coastal flooding, with some of the City’s ongoing and planned responses. Twentieth century sea level rise in New York City (2.8 cm/decade) exceeded the global average (1.7 cm/decade), underscoring the enhanced regional risk to coastal hazards. NPCC (2015) projects future sea level rise at the Battery of 28–53 cm by the 2050s and 46–99 cm by the 2080s, relative to 2000–2004 (mid-range, 25th–75th percentile). High-end SLR estimates (90th percentile) reach 76 cm by the 2050s, and 1.9 m by 2100. Combining these projections with updated FEMA flood return period curves, assuming static flood dynamics and storm behavior, flood heights for the 100-year storm (excluding waves) attain 3.9–4.5 m (mid-range), relative to the NAVD88 tidal datum, and 4.9 m (high end) by the 2080s, up from 3.4 m in the 2000s. Flood heights with a 1% annual chance of occurrence in the 2000s increase to 2.0–5.4% (mid-range) and 12.7% per year (high-end), by the 2080s. Guided by NPCC (2013, 2015) findings, New York City has embarked on a suite of initiatives to strengthen coastal defenses, employing various approaches tailored to specific neighborhood needs. NPCC continues its collaboration with the city to investigate vulnerability to extreme climate events, including heat waves, inland floods and coastal storms. Current research entails higher-resolution neighborhood-level coastal flood mapping, changes in storm characteristics, surge height interactions with sea level rise, and stronger engagement with stakeholders and community-based organizations.

URL: https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-53742-9_13

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-53742-9


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks - Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2017 Dieng, H. B.; Cazenave, A.; Meyssignac, B.; Ablain, M. Journal Article New estimate of the current rate of sea level rise from a sea level budget approach

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Type: Journal Article

Title: New estimate of the current rate of sea level rise from a sea level budget approach

Authors: Dieng, H. B.; Cazenave, A.; Meyssignac, B.; Ablain, M.

Year: 2017

Periodical: Geophysical Research Letters

Volume: 44

Issue: 8

Pages: 3744-3751

Abstract: We revisit the global mean sea level (GMSL) budget during the whole altimetry era (January 1993 to December 2015) using a large number of data sets. The budget approach allows quantifying the TOPEX A altimeter drift (amounting 1.5 ± 0.5 mm/yr over 1993–1998). Accounting for this correction and using ensemble means for the GMSL and components lead to closure of the sea level budget (trend of the residual time series being 0.0 ± 0.22 mm/yr). The new GMSL rate over January 1993 to December 2015 is now close to 3.0 mm/yr. An important increase of the GMSL rate, of 0.8 mm/yr, is found during the second half of the altimetry era (2004–2015) compared to the 1993–2004 time span, mostly due to Greenland mass loss increase and also to slight increase of all other components of the budget.

URL: http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL073308

DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073308


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks - Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2016 Clark, Peter U.; Shakun, Jeremy D.; Marcott, Shaun A.; Mix, Alan C.; Eby, Michael; Kulp, Scott; Levermann, Anders; Milne, Glenn A.; Pfister, Patrik L.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Schrag, Daniel P.; Solomon, Susan; Stocker, Thomas F.; Strauss, Benjamin H.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Archer, David; Bard, Edouard; Goldner, Aaron; Lambeck, Kurt; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T.; Plattner, Gian-Kasper Journal Article Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change

Authors: Clark, Peter U.; Shakun, Jeremy D.; Marcott, Shaun A.; Mix, Alan C.; Eby, Michael; Kulp, Scott; Levermann, Anders; Milne, Glenn A.; Pfister, Patrik L.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Schrag, Daniel P.; Solomon, Susan; Stocker, Thomas F.; Strauss, Benjamin H.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Archer, David; Bard, Edouard; Goldner, Aaron; Lambeck, Kurt; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T.; Plattner, Gian-Kasper

Year: 2016

Periodical: Nature Climate Change

Publisher: Nature Publishing Group

Volume: 6

Issue: 4

Pages: 360-369

Abstract: Most of the policy debate surrounding the actions needed to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change has been framed by observations of the past 150 years as well as climate and sea-level projections for the twenty-first century. The focus on this 250-year window, however, obscures some of the most profound problems associated with climate change. Here, we argue that the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, a period during which the overwhelming majority of human-caused carbon emissions are likely to occur, need to be placed into a long-term context that includes the past 20 millennia, when the last Ice Age ended and human civilization developed, and the next ten millennia, over which time the projected impacts of anthropogenic climate change will grow and persist. This long-term perspective illustrates that policy decisions made in the next few years to decades will have profound impacts on global climate, ecosystems and human societies — not just for this century, but for the next ten millennia and beyond.

URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2923

DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2923


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks - Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2015 Dutton, A.; Carlson, A. E.; Long, A. J.; Milne, G. A.; Clark, P. U.; DeConto, R.; Horton, B. P.; Rahmstorf, S.; Raymo, M. E. Magazine Article Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods

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Type: Magazine Article

Title: Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods

Authors: Dutton, A.; Carlson, A. E.; Long, A. J.; Milne, G. A.; Clark, P. U.; DeConto, R.; Horton, B. P.; Rahmstorf, S.; Raymo, M. E.

Year: 2015

Periodical: Science

Volume: 349

Issue: 6244

Pages: aaa4019-aaa4019

Abstract: Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo–sea level records.

URL: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aaa4019

DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa4019


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks - Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2015 Reguero, Borja G.; Losada, Iñigo J.; Díaz-Simal, Pedro; Méndez, Fernando J.; Beck, Michael W. Journal Article Effects of climate change on exposure to coastal flooding in Latin America and the Caribbean

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Effects of climate change on exposure to coastal flooding in Latin America and the Caribbean

Authors: Reguero, Borja G.; Losada, Iñigo J.; Díaz-Simal, Pedro; Méndez, Fernando J.; Beck, Michael W.

Year: 2015

Periodical: PLoS ONE

Volume: 10

Issue: 7

Pages: 1-19

Abstract: This study considers and compares several of the most important factors contributing to coastal flooding in Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) while accounting for the variations of these factors with location and time. The study assesses the populations, the land areas and the built capital exposed at present and at the middle and end of the 21st century for a set of scenarios that include both climatic and non-climatic drivers. Climatic drivers include global mean sea level, natural modes of climate variability such as El Niño, natural subsidence, and extreme sea levels resulting from the combination of projected local sea-level rise, storm surges and wave setup. Population is the only human-related driver accounted for in the future. Without adaptation, more than 4 million inhabitants will be exposed to flooding from relative sea-level rise by the end of the century, assuming the 8.5 W m-2 trajectory of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), or RCP8.5. However, the contributions from El Niño events substantially raise the threat in several Pacific-coast countries of the region and sooner than previously anticipated. At the tropical Pacific coastlines, the exposure by the mid-century for an event similar to El Niño 1998 would be comparable to that of the RCP4.5 relative sea-level rise by the end of the century. Furthermore, more than 7.5 million inhabitants, 42,600 km2 and built capital valued at 334 billion USD are currently situated at elevations below the 100-year extreme sea level. With sea levels rising and the population increasing, it is estimated that more than 9 million inhabitants will be exposed by the end of the century for either of the RCPs considered. The spatial distribution of exposure and the comparison of scenarios and timeframes can serve as a guide in future adaptation and risk reduction policies in the region.

URL: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0133409&ty...

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0133409


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks - Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2014 Monbaliu, Jaak; Chen, Zhongyuan; Felts, Didier; Ge, Jianzhong; Hissel, Francois; Kappenberg, Jens; Narayan, Siddharth; Nicholls, Robert J.; Ohle, Nino; Schuster, Dagmar; Sothmann, Janina; Willems, Patrick Journal Article Risk assessment of estuaries under climate change: Lessons from Western Europe

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Risk assessment of estuaries under climate change: Lessons from Western Europe

Authors: Monbaliu, Jaak; Chen, Zhongyuan; Felts, Didier; Ge, Jianzhong; Hissel, Francois; Kappenberg, Jens; Narayan, Siddharth; Nicholls, Robert J.; Ohle, Nino; Schuster, Dagmar; Sothmann, Janina; Willems, Patrick

Year: 2014

Periodical: Coastal Engineering

Publisher: Elsevier B.V.

Volume: 87

Pages: 32-49

Abstract: Climate change with rising sea levels and possible changes in surge levels and wave climate will have a large impact on how we protect our coastal areas and cities. Here the focus is on estuarine locations not only affected by tide and surge propagation, but also potentially influenced by freshwater discharge. Mitigation measures might be diverse ranging from pure hard 'engineering' solutions all the way to significant realignment. The variation in the type/origin and extent of the flood sources greatly influences subsequent risk management measures. At the same time, society is increasingly demanding that we take a holistic view on risk management, embracing and balancing safety, ecological and socio-economic aspects. This requires that all these diverse factors need to be considered together and integrated. In this context, the Source-Pathway-Receptor (SPR) approach offers a powerful holistic tool to investigate changing risk connected to extreme events.The traditional SPR approach with a consecutive treatment of the flood, pathway and receptor is well understood and is widely used in coastal flood risk analysis. Here an enhanced 2D conceptual version of the SPR method is used to better describe the system and to allow flexibility in considering multiple scales, flood sources and pathways. The new approach is demonstrated by three estuarine case studies in western Europe: the Gironde estuary, France; the Dendermonde region in the Scheldt estuary, Belgium; and HafenCity (Hamburg) in the Elbe estuary, Germany. They differ considerably in the surface area considered, in the type of flood sources, and hence also in the SPR configuration. After a brief introduction of the typical characteristics of the three study sites including some lessons learned from past flood protection measures, the differences in application and results of the SPR approach are discussed. Emphasis is on the specific aspects for each study site, but embedded in a generic SPR framework. The resulting generic lessons learned about the flood sources and how this shapes subsequent analysis are transferable to numerous important estuaries worldwide. copy; 2014 Elsevier B.V.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.01.001

DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.01.001


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks - Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2014 Weisse, Ralf; Bellafiore, Debora; Menéndez, Melisa; Méndez, Fernando; Nicholls, Robert J.; Umgiesser, Georg; Willems, Patrick Journal Article Changing extreme sea levels along European coasts

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Changing extreme sea levels along European coasts

Authors: Weisse, Ralf; Bellafiore, Debora; Menéndez, Melisa; Méndez, Fernando; Nicholls, Robert J.; Umgiesser, Georg; Willems, Patrick

Year: 2014

Periodical: Coastal Engineering

Volume: 87

Pages: 4-14

Abstract: Extreme sea levels at European coasts and their changes over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries are considered, including a method to analyze extreme sea levels and to assess their changes in a consistent way at different sites. The approach is based on using a combination of statistical tools and dynamical modelling as well as observational data and scenarios for potential future developments. The analysis is made for both time series of extreme sea levels and individually for the different components contributing to the extremes comprising (i) mean sea level changes, (ii) wind waves and storm surges and (iii), for relevant places, river flows. It is found that while regionally results vary in detail, some general inferences can be obtained. In particular it is found, that extreme sea levels show pronounced short-term and long-term variability partly associated with seasonal and nodal tidal cycles. Long-term trends are mostly associated with corresponding mean sea level changes while changes in wave and storm surge climate mostly contribute to inter-annual and decadal variability, but do not show substantial long-term trends. It is expected that this situation will continue for the upcoming decades and that long-term variability dominates over long-term trends at least for the coming decades. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378383913001737?via%3Dihub

DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.017


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks - Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2014 Hoggart, S. P.G.; Hanley, M. E.; Parker, D. J.; Simmonds, D. J.; Bilton, D. T.; Filipova-Marinova, M.; Franklin, E. L.; Kotsev, I.; Penning-Rowsell, E. C.; Rundle, S. D.; Trifonova, E.; Vergiev, S.; White, A. C.; Thompson, R. C. Journal Article The consequences of doing nothing: The effects of seawater flooding on coastal zones

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Type: Journal Article

Title: The consequences of doing nothing: The effects of seawater flooding on coastal zones

Authors: Hoggart, S. P.G.; Hanley, M. E.; Parker, D. J.; Simmonds, D. J.; Bilton, D. T.; Filipova-Marinova, M.; Franklin, E. L.; Kotsev, I.; Penning-Rowsell, E. C.; Rundle, S. D.; Trifonova, E.; Vergiev, S.; White, A. C.; Thompson, R. C.

Year: 2014

Periodical: Coastal Engineering

Publisher: Elsevier B.V.

Volume: 87

Pages: 169-182

Abstract: Sea level rise and an increased frequency and severity of storm surge events due to climate change are likely to increase the susceptibility of low lying coastal areas to seawater flooding. An integral part of any coastal management strategy throughout European countries is the "do nothing" scenario; this is the benchmark against which putative intervention strategies are evaluated. While the prime concern of a flood defense scheme appraisal often focuses on the sustained financial "benefits" of an intervention, intrinsic to a complete multicriteria analysis is a comprehensive evaluation of the ecological and social consequences of coastal flooding, reflecting the needs of end users and satisfying relevant national and international policies.An ecological perspective may be usefully employed to examine the impact of the do nothing option on coastal environments (e.g. estuaries, sand dunes and grasslands) and businesses. Although at first sight coastal environmental and business systems appear quite different, they have similarities in that both are vulnerable and susceptible to flood damage or loss and both may be analyzed by employing ecological, adaptive, resilience frameworks. From an ecological perspective many coastal environments are of international conservation importance and provide important ecosystem services including coastal protection, nutrient cycling, carbon sequestration, food production and recreation. Nonetheless, despite their potential vulnerability to coastal flooding, our understanding of the effects of salinity on the biological response of many coastal plants and animals is extremely limited. We show here how plant physiology and patterns of plant and invertebrate distribution are impacted by sea water flooding. We also present responses of model plants to sea water inundation based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) predictions of sea level rise and storm surge events. Results showed that coastal habitats surveyed are relatively resilient to flooding due to their species rich nature and their ability to adapt to flooding. However specific groups of plants such as grasses are more affected by flooding and less able to recover.The socio-economic dimensions of doing nothing are addressed in relation to the impacts of coastal flooding specifically on business activity, which has received little attention to date. Here the focus is on the presence or absence of business disruption and recovery plans as a means of increasing a business's adaptation and resilience to flooding. Results show that some businesses, particularly small ones, are more likely to fail to recover from flooding due to lack of forward planning. Therefore from an ecological perspective business recovery post flooding is likely to be dependent upon ability to adapt, which itself depends upon the construction of resilient business environments. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.12.001

DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.12.001


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks - Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2012 Jevrejeva, S.; Moore, J.C.; Grinsted, A. Journal Article Sea level projections to AD2500 with a new generation of climate change scenarios

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Sea level projections to AD2500 with a new generation of climate change scenarios

Authors: Jevrejeva, S.; Moore, J.C.; Grinsted, A.

Year: 2012

Periodical: Global and Planetary Change

Volume: 80-81

Pages: 14-20

Abstract: Sea level rise over the coming centuries is perhaps the most damaging side of rising temperature (Anthoff et al., 2009). The economic costs and social consequences of coastal flooding and forced migration will probably be one of the dominant impacts of global warming (Sugiyama et al., 2008). To date, however, few studies (Nicholls et al., 2008; Anthoff et al., 2009) on infrastructure and socio-economic planning include provision for multi-century and multi-metre rises in mean sea level. Here we use a physically plausible sea level model constrained by observations, and forced with four new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) radiative forcing scenarios (Moss et al., 2010) to project median sea level rises of 0.57 for the lowest forcing and 1.10 m for the highest forcing by 2100 which rise to 1.84 and 5.49 m respectively by 2500. Sea level will continue to rise for several centuries even after stabilisation of radiative forcing with most of the rise after 2100 due to the long response time of sea level. The rate of sea level rise would be positive for centuries, requiring 200–400 years to drop to the 1.8 mm/yr 20th century average, except for the RCP3PD which would rely on geoengineering.

URL: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921818111001469

DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.09.006


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks - Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2012 Willis, Josh K; Church, John A Magazine Article Regional Sea-Level Projection

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Type: Magazine Article

Title: Regional Sea-Level Projection

Authors: Willis, Josh K; Church, John A

Year: 2012

Periodical: Science

Volume: 336

Issue: 6081

Pages: 550-551

Abstract: Projections of global sea-level rise by 2100 C.E. range from 20 cm (1) to as much as 2 m (2, 3), and sea level will not stop rising then. For civilization, the stakes are high. Without adaptation, a rise by 0.5 m would displace 3.8 million people in the most fertile part of the Nile River Delta (4). A rise by 2 m could displace 187 million people globally (5). Credible projections of sea-level rise in the 21st century are essential for devising adaptation or mitigation measures. Yet, present estimates of future sea-level rise are too imprecise to inform such decisions.

URL: http://science.sciencemag.org/content/336/6081/550

DOI: 10.1126/science.1220366


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks - Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2012 Mondal, Pinki; Tatem, Andrew J. Journal Article Uncertainties in Measuring Populations Potentially Impacted by Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Uncertainties in Measuring Populations Potentially Impacted by Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding

Authors: Mondal, Pinki; Tatem, Andrew J.

Year: 2012

Periodical: PLoS ONE

Volume: 7

Issue: 10

Pages: 1-7

Abstract: A better understanding of the impact of global climate change requires information on the locations and characteristics of populations affected. For instance, with global sea level predicted to rise and coastal flooding set to become more frequent and intense, high-resolution spatial population datasets are increasingly being used to estimate the size of vulnerable coastal populations. Many previous studies have undertaken this by quantifying the size of populations residing in low elevation coastal zones using one of two global spatial population datasets available – LandScan and the Global Rural Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP). This has been undertaken without consideration of the effects of this choice, which are a function of the quality of input datasets and differences in methods used to construct each spatial population dataset. Here we calculate estimated low elevation coastal zone resident population sizes from LandScan and GRUMP using previously adopted approaches, and quantify the absolute and relative differences achieved through switching datasets. Our findings suggest that the choice of one particular dataset over another can translate to a difference of more than 7.5 million vulnerable people for countries with extensive coastal populations, such as Indonesia and Japan. Our findings also show variations in estimates of proportions of national populations at risk range from <0.1% to 45% differences when switching between datasets, with large differences predominantly for countries where coarse and outdated input data were used in the construction of the spatial population datasets. The results highlight the need for the construction of spatial population datasets built on accurate, contemporary and detailed census data for use in climate change impact studies and the importance of acknowledging uncertainties inherent in existing spatial population datasets when estimating the demographic impacts of climate change.

URL: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0048191&ty...

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0048191


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks - Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

2010 Nicholls, R; Cazenave, A Magazine Article Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones

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Type: Magazine Article

Title: Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones

Authors: Nicholls, R; Cazenave, A

Year: 2010

Periodical: Science (New York, N.Y.)

Volume: 328

Issue: 5985

Pages: 1517-1520

Abstract: Global sea levels have risen through the 20th century. These rises will almost certainly accelerate through the 21st century and beyond because of global warming, but their magnitude remains uncertain. Key uncertainties include the possible role of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and the amplitude of regional changes in sea level. In many areas, nonclimatic components of relative sealevel change (mainly subsidence) can also be locally appreciable. Although the impacts of sea-level rise are potentially large, the application and success of adaptation are large uncertainties that require more assessment and consideration.

URL: http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/envs501/downloads/Nicholls %26 Cazenave 2010.pdf

DOI: 10.1126/science.1185782


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2006 Nicholls, R. J.; Tol, R. S. J. Journal Article Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century

Resource


Type: Journal Article

Title: Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century

Authors: Nicholls, R. J.; Tol, R. S. J.

Year: 2006

Periodical: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences

Volume: 364

Issue: 1841

Pages: 1073-1095

Abstract: Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

URL: http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/364/1841/1073.full.pdf

DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2006.1754


Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts

Building Blocks - Technical studies that offer in-depth and foundational information about individual concepts