Sea Level Rise - Syntheses

Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate

Syntheses - Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate.

How fast is sea level rising?

Displaying 1 - 5 of 5
Year Authors Type Title
2017 Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D. Journal Article Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

Resource


Type: Journal Article

Title: Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

Authors: Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D.

Year: 2017

Periodical: Scientific Reports

Volume: 7

Issue: 1

Pages: 1-9

Abstract: Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-01362-7.pdf

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-01362-7


Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate

Syntheses - Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate.

2017 Dahl, Kristina A.; Fitzpatrick, Melanie F.; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika Journal Article Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045

Authors: Dahl, Kristina A.; Fitzpatrick, Melanie F.; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

Year: 2017

Periodical: PLoS ONE

Volume: 12

Issue: 2

Pages: 1-23

Abstract: Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001–2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding cur-rently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substan-tial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years.

URL: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0170949&ty...

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0170949


Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate

Syntheses - Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate.

2015 Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Rohmer, Jeremy; Cazenave, Anny; Idier, Déborah; van de Wal, Roderik; de Winter, Renske; Pedreros, Rodrigo; Balouin, Yann; Vinchon, Charlotte; Oliveros, Carlos Journal Article Evaluating uncertainties of future marine flooding occurrence as sea-level rises

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Evaluating uncertainties of future marine flooding occurrence as sea-level rises

Authors: Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Rohmer, Jeremy; Cazenave, Anny; Idier, Déborah; van de Wal, Roderik; de Winter, Renske; Pedreros, Rodrigo; Balouin, Yann; Vinchon, Charlotte; Oliveros, Carlos

Year: 2015

Periodical: Environmental Modelling & Software

Volume: 73

Pages: 44-56

Abstract: As sea-level rises, the frequency of coastal marine flooding events is changing. For accurate assessments, several other factors must be considered as well, such as the variability of sea-level rise and storm surge patterns. Here, a global sensitivity analysis is used to provide quantitative insight into the relative importance of contributing uncertainties over the coming decades. The method is applied on an urban low-lying coastal site located in the north-western Mediterranean, where the yearly probability of damaging flooding could grow drastically after 2050 if sea-level rise follows IPCC projections. Storm surge propagation processes, then sea-level variability, and, later, global sea-level rise scenarios become successively important source of uncertainties over the 21st century. This defines research priorities that depend on the target period of interest. On the long term, scenarios RCP 6.0 and 8.0 challenge local capacities of adaptation for the considered site.

URL: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364815215300268

DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.07.021


Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate

Syntheses - Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate.

2015 Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J. Journal Article Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding - A global assessment

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding - A global assessment

Authors: Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

Year: 2015

Periodical: PLoS ONE

Volume: 10

Issue: 3

Pages: 1-34

Abstract: Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we identify needs for further research and scope for improvement in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis.

URL: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0118571&ty...

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0118571


Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate

Syntheses - Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate.

2011 Mousavi, Mir Emad; Irish, Jennifer L.; Frey, Ashley E.; Olivera, Francisco; Edge, Billy L. Journal Article Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding

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Type: Journal Article

Title: Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding

Authors: Mousavi, Mir Emad; Irish, Jennifer L.; Frey, Ashley E.; Olivera, Francisco; Edge, Billy L.

Year: 2011

Periodical: Climatic Change

Volume: 104

Issue: 3-4

Pages: 575-597

Abstract: Tens of millions of people around the world are already exposed to coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Global warming has the potential to increase hurricane flooding, both by hurricane intensification and by sea level rise. In this paper, the impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise are evaluated using hydrodynamic surge models and by considering the future climate projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For the Corpus Christi, Texas, United States study region, mean projections indicate hurricane flood elevation (meteorologically generated storm surge plus sea level rise) will, on average, rise by 0.3 m by the 2030s and by 0.8 m by the 2080s. For catastrophic-type hurricane surge events, flood elevations are projected to rise by as much as 0.5 m and 1.8 m by the 2030s and 2080s, respectively.

URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-009-9790-0

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9790-0


Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate

Syntheses - Resources for a comprehensive understanding of the issue and how different concepts interrelate.